Odyssey


Not even a whisper – the things most industrialists don’t want you to know about Odyssey

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As I have stated in the past ‘change brings profit’, expect Odyssey to be no exception. Actually with with the set of coming changes expect Odyssey to be the epitome of this statement:

  1. Ice speculation – you are probably sick of hearing about it but ice belts are now found through exploration and are quickly depleted. Naturally when you restrict supply without changing demand prices will increase, that is once the massive stockpiles of isotopes have been depleted. This instantly spiked the price of isotopes when large groups such as Goonswarm began purchasing the currently low priced isotopes on market.
  2. Ice speculation speculation – as the price of isotopes has risen before the release a lot of clever high sec miners decided to mine ice rather than Veldspar now that it is the most profitable high sec activity. Many of these miners didn’t want to ruin their current beautifully rigged ships so purchased themselves lots of new mackinaws to fit with Ice rigs. Mackinaws initially floated at 30mil profit per unit after the change now dropping to ~20mil per unit at -3ME this is close to double their usual profit.
  3. Battleship material changes – well this one was a no brainer just as happened with BCs the material costs of the low tier ships is due to increase with Odyssey when they are hit by the effects of tiericide. There has been massive production of tier 1 BS since the announcement of this change due to the high profits and limited time scale before the change, many players are sitting on billions of ISK worth of tier 1 BS simply waiting for their price to inflate.
  4. Tech 1 mineral speculation – with more and more T1 ships having their mineral costs increase there is a general increase in demand for all materials. With battleships and battle cruisers this change was most notable due to their high rate of consumption, this could possibly lead to inflation in material prices depending on how well players adapt in changing their ISK making activities as supply is not fixed. Some players are betting ISK on low end materials by purchasing large amounts in the hope that prices will spike a few months after the material changes.
  5. New capital rigs – with the introduction of capital rigs there are new items to produce for manufacturers. However, with Orcas not being affected and capital consumption being low this isn’t expected to be a massive winner on release day. Expect average to mediocre returns at best, unless active tanking capitals return to the scene spurring on purchases of rigs such as capital nanobot accelerators.
  6. Rig material speculation – new rigs with higher material requirements means higher demand, with limited additional supply expect rig materials to increase slightly. Due to the demand for capital rigs not being massive I don’t expect this one to be huge but I have put ISK into it as even a 5% return when on a large scale is worth it.
  7. New scanning modules – new modules, especially T2 modules always bring a patch day frenzy to purchase them with players often paying ten times a standard market rate for them. Unfortunately CCP have stepped in to prevent this with T2 modules this time by clever choice of material requirements. The new scanning modules all require items from hacking and relic sites, this likely means that these new items will be the vast majority of the items cost on patch day and the profits of these new items will be in the hands of explorers rather than manufacturers.
  8. T2 ship material changes – with the rebalance of T2 materials and introduction of new moons everything changes, this is a massive change that will have long lasting effects both to the face of null and the cost of T2 manufacturing. In the short term of the first two weeks post release expect T2 ship prices to increase by about 5%, as the new R64 filled moons are discovered expect the prices to drop in the long term depending on just how much more of these materials are added to the system.
  9. New decryptors for invention – well this makes things very interesting three new decryptors the parity, optimized augmentation and optimized attainment. The most interesting of these for me is the optimized augmentation which adds +7 runs and +2 material efficiency (ME) to blue print copies (BPCs) produced from it whilst not effecting production efficiency. This could effectively be the holy grail of large scale invention with 8 run T2 cruiser ship BPCs with -2ME being a gift from the heavens allowing longer production runs and less clicky clicky invention work. We will see how these play out post Odyssey as it is dependent upon their drop rates and just how many people jump onto the ‘please stop me from having to invent daily’ bandwagon.

Overall this is the biggest change for industrialists since… well perhaps since the introduction of T3 cruisers and even then the repercussions of the changes made are much more widespread. I’m honestly surprised that CCP have chosen to change so much at once especially in areas that overlap and could affect each other making them trickier to predict the results of. Let’s look at some of these examples of the interconnected nature of EVE:

  1. Removal of static Ice belts whilst introducing new R64 moons – depending on how many new moons CCP are introducing there could be an effect on the price of isotopes from the introduction of new R64 moons. Each moon requires a new large POS to harvest its resources, whilst having a reasonable level of defence – this is an increase of demand whilst reducing demand. As CCP know how many R64 moons they are adding I expect them not to fudge this one up, but who knows maybe someone took their full dose of stupid that day in the office.
  2. Removal of static Ice belts whilst increasing material requirements of BS – this one is interesting with the removal of static belts the convenience factor of ice is removed which could result in lots of new Veldspar miners. To compound this effect the increase of BS material costs pushes up the profitability of mining due to increased demand, the ultimate result is a lot of miners could just stop ice mining making the isotope prices explode until players adapt. That is presuming the highsec carebears aren’t so bitter that they vow never to ice mine again as it isn’t as relaxing having to actually find ice to mine. I expect some minor market mayhem surrounding this balance, intelligent players will naturally profit from this.
  3. Introduction of new decryptors whilst changing the total moon material basket, this one really is a mine field in my mind. How do you determine what players will choose to use these decryptors on and how does this affect the material consumption in EVE. With all of the decryptors increasing ME it may actually have been well thought out change and a well hidden nerf to moon income.  This one could mess up alliance level income and sustainability depending on drop rate – there will be tears if drop rates are high allowing for the majority of production to be at -2ME rather than -3 and -4ME as are fairly commonly used now.

This is the most interesting time for industry and market players in my EVE career, and I’m really looking forward to the coming changes. Will be interesting to hear all of the post release profits and losses from players across New Eden, if you’ve only heard about this now don’t worry you still have chance to prepare and cash in for Odyssey.

Moon material prices, what is the future?

With the recent announcement that CCP are going to shake things up and focus on the resources that control EVE in it’s upcoming expansion Odyssey the T2 material markets has entered a state of panic.

Over the past month the price of nanotransistors has dropped from an average of 5868 to 5055 a drop of 13.9% with the lowest point being 4908 a drop of 16.4% with the announcement of the coming change yet to come. Those with tin foil hats amongst you would say this is due to Goons dumping their stockpile to market as their CCP employees told them about the change ahead of time in order to minimise their losses. However, a more reasoned argument would be to state this is due to T2 manufacturers such as myself putting their production on hold until a change is announced after being stung by a drop in material prices.

Take for example my recent batch of 5 Anshars which we’re built at 6.5bil per unit, with an initial sell price of 7bil. However, as material prices dropped the prices at which they were being sold dropped also as manufacturers went it to panic and reduced prices to sell fast. Eventually the best I could sell at was 6.4bil per unit a total of 500mil lost wasting 5 manufacturing slots for the whole of a month.

With the video dev blog regarding EVE  development tomorrow the 9th of April we could be about to hear the biggest news about moon resources since the first introduction of alchemy, with potential to over time change the landscape of 0.0 once again. What if this news does not come tomorrow? Well then we will have to be patient and wait until fanfest to hear what is to come this summer.

Odyssey preparation – What to manufacture in this new age?

EVE Online Odyssey Manufacturing

With the recent announcement of EVE Online Odyssey for June the 4th manufacturers across EVE are asking the big question ‘What should I build now?’. The answer is a quite scary anything you want, but be prepared to make a potential loss if your manufacturing coincides with a big and unfortunately timed resource rebalancing dev blog from CCP.

An important gem from the few little bits of information that have been release that has every industrialist on the edge of their seat:

Moving moon goo and every other kind of industrial resource (i.e., non-static resources, missions, rats, everything).

With this prices will fluctuate one direction or another, most likely downward as any rebalancing of technetium would likely end the current cartel run by the Goons. The same applies for Neodymium with TESTs most recent cartel, a move to ring mining or a complete redistribution of resources could have a massive long term effect on prices. Market confidence alone is likely to see prices on T2 materials continue to drop as large investors step away from the market and stock holders dump what they own to market to mitigate future losses.

As a T2 manufacturer who turns over >100bil in T2 manufacturing this is a massive concern for myself, how to manage this risk that your materials and hence products value will drop like a rock overnight. With the technetium price drop ships previously dropped by ~25% any future changes could see just as big an impact.

Lets take building 200 mackinaws as an example a 25% drop in raw material prices is roughly 6.6bil loss, with the standard batch profit being around half of that leaving us with a loss of 3.3bil on a standard batch. This sort of batch takes me ~7 days to build which is plenty of time for prices to have nosedived completely if production starts as the batch goes in. Mitigating this risk should be the main focus of a large scale manufacturer over the coming months I have two handy tips with this in mind:

1) Build small, smaller batches see smaller losses and reduce the time scale in which goods have time to drop like a rock in value. If shit hits the fan as your batch is coming out of production dump to buy orders to minimise losses don’t hope for market recovery unless you have a highly liquid operation and are happy to hold onto your product for several months.

2) Sell to bulk traders at medicore profits, selling directly to market can take quite some time. However, selling directly to bulk traders mitigates the risk of prices dropping by getting the product off your hands and effectively selling the risk on. Bulk trade mailing list is really handy to find all of these nice bulk traders.

When looking at what is most likely to come out on top for manufacturing the answer may be for a change T1 production due to the introduction of new T1 faction ships:

Navy tier 2 BCs; Harbinger, Hurricane, Brutix, and Drake.

This single line means that people are going to go new ship crazy, new ship crazy means T1 mineral inflation which means when the change is announced the value of any T1 ships in production instantly shoots up. If anything this places the low profit T1 manufacturing as the most likely type of manufacturing to be risk free.

Moving on to T3 manufacturing the current expansion possibilities mention:

New systems.

New Exploration stuff, content TBA.

These two points also put W-space under the spot light to a minor extent, chances are it won’t happen but wormhole exploration may get some love. Opening up more wormholes and creating new sites would mean additional resources which in turn would mean price drops, however this could be offset by the introduction of new T3 ships which then gives industrials something to ‘ooo and ahhh’ over with the new release. This puts T3 production as middle of the road in risk terms.

So where does this leave production in EVE at the moment, well it’s an exciting but a risky time. Anything could happen but the risk varies depending upon the type of manufacturing. Going from most risky to least we have the following types of production:
1) T2 production, high risk due to current poor balance of moon goo.
2) T3 production, low risk but some chance of change due to exploration theme of Odyssey.
3) T1 production, with new T1 faction ships being introduced the chances are that mineral prices will increase due to the buzz over new ships.

Remember keep batches small and sell to bulk traders to minimise your risk, or hey stop manufacturing until raw material changes are announced. More profit for me, either way I don’t mind.