Odyssey preparation – What to manufacture in this new age?

EVE Online Odyssey Manufacturing

With the recent announcement of EVE Online Odyssey for June the 4th manufacturers across EVE are asking the big question ‘What should I build now?’. The answer is a quite scary anything you want, but be prepared to make a potential loss if your manufacturing coincides with a big and unfortunately timed resource rebalancing dev blog from CCP.

An important gem from the few little bits of information that have been release that has every industrialist on the edge of their seat:

Moving moon goo and every other kind of industrial resource (i.e., non-static resources, missions, rats, everything).

With this prices will fluctuate one direction or another, most likely downward as any rebalancing of technetium would likely end the current cartel run by the Goons. The same applies for Neodymium with TESTs most recent cartel, a move to ring mining or a complete redistribution of resources could have a massive long term effect on prices. Market confidence alone is likely to see prices on T2 materials continue to drop as large investors step away from the market and stock holders dump what they own to market to mitigate future losses.

As a T2 manufacturer who turns over >100bil in T2 manufacturing this is a massive concern for myself, how to manage this risk that your materials and hence products value will drop like a rock overnight. With the technetium price drop ships previously dropped by ~25% any future changes could see just as big an impact.

Lets take building 200 mackinaws as an example a 25% drop in raw material prices is roughly 6.6bil loss, with the standard batch profit being around half of that leaving us with a loss of 3.3bil on a standard batch. This sort of batch takes me ~7 days to build which is plenty of time for prices to have nosedived completely if production starts as the batch goes in. Mitigating this risk should be the main focus of a large scale manufacturer over the coming months I have two handy tips with this in mind:

1) Build small, smaller batches see smaller losses and reduce the time scale in which goods have time to drop like a rock in value. If shit hits the fan as your batch is coming out of production dump to buy orders to minimise losses don’t hope for market recovery unless you have a highly liquid operation and are happy to hold onto your product for several months.

2) Sell to bulk traders at medicore profits, selling directly to market can take quite some time. However, selling directly to bulk traders mitigates the risk of prices dropping by getting the product off your hands and effectively selling the risk on. Bulk trade mailing list is really handy to find all of these nice bulk traders.

When looking at what is most likely to come out on top for manufacturing the answer may be for a change T1 production due to the introduction of new T1 faction ships:

Navy tier 2 BCs; Harbinger, Hurricane, Brutix, and Drake.

This single line means that people are going to go new ship crazy, new ship crazy means T1 mineral inflation which means when the change is announced the value of any T1 ships in production instantly shoots up. If anything this places the low profit T1 manufacturing as the most likely type of manufacturing to be risk free.

Moving on to T3 manufacturing the current expansion possibilities mention:

New systems.

New Exploration stuff, content TBA.

These two points also put W-space under the spot light to a minor extent, chances are it won’t happen but wormhole exploration may get some love. Opening up more wormholes and creating new sites would mean additional resources which in turn would mean price drops, however this could be offset by the introduction of new T3 ships which then gives industrials something to ‘ooo and ahhh’ over with the new release. This puts T3 production as middle of the road in risk terms.

So where does this leave production in EVE at the moment, well it’s an exciting but a risky time. Anything could happen but the risk varies depending upon the type of manufacturing. Going from most risky to least we have the following types of production:
1) T2 production, high risk due to current poor balance of moon goo.
2) T3 production, low risk but some chance of change due to exploration theme of Odyssey.
3) T1 production, with new T1 faction ships being introduced the chances are that mineral prices will increase due to the buzz over new ships.

Remember keep batches small and sell to bulk traders to minimise your risk, or hey stop manufacturing until raw material changes are announced. More profit for me, either way I don’t mind.